The way it was in George Town transport wise

Penang had a history of experimentations in modes of transports -we had horse drawn trams, electric trams, trolley buses, steam engine driven buses etc, before diesel buses took over under Lim Kean Siew's directive. The story by STAR should inspire Penangites to think boldly about reforming and updating our transport system. The change currently embarked upon is too little too late: complaints come from overly `manja' bus operators -who complained of having to follow same vehicles regulations as all others,and the public who are not fully informed of where the improvements are eg are there more routes coverage compared to before? Would there be timetables ? Would the buses be refurbished ? It does not look like the State Government is fully prepared -as are the bus operators, to push through the revamp of the bus system. Then how could it succeed after the oil hike protests are bulldozed off the streets by the State apparatus @police@FRU ?

Where's the pearl? Conclusion

Conclusion: The Only Solution for Penang is Local Election

The previous 13 charts highlighted general stagnation, even a long-term decline inthe outlooks for Penang's income, private vehicle, air transport, tourism, and manufacturing investment. They show that:

• Penangites are poorer than the national average by 12% [2004 Sep 30 correction: SERI has since corrected this data to show GDP/cap of about 36% above national level. See Chart 1 article]
• Private vehicles registrations are doubled the density of the country, while taxis are old and rare
• Air craft movements and passenger arrivals, both indicators of tourism and manufacturing activities, are in a decade-old slump
• Tourist arrivals: International tourists are down, hotel occupancies are down, Penang increasingly rely on less lucrative domestic tourists
• Approved projects: Total investments, project size, jobs per project, total potential jobs are all down.
• Penang's approved manufacturing investments growth was one of the worst in Malaysia during 2000

No way out? There is no solution except political solution.

Where's the pearl? (Chart 8)

8. What Pearl? Relying On Less Lucrative Domestic Tourists

This chart shows the long-term trend that Penang increasingly relies on domestic tourists (green area). From 2000 to 2003 especially, the portion of foreign and local tourists reversed from 62%-38% to 38%-62%.

Although domestic tourists are welcomed and bring revenues too,

• Domestic tourists generally spend less, and avoid beach and luxury hotels
• Bring in more cars, traffic jams, and parking problems

Where's the pearl? (Chart 7)

7. What Pearl? International Tourists Down Sharply Before SARS

International visitor arrivals to Penang were down in 1997, and were especially negative during 2000-2003. Penang's total visitor arrival growths were negative, except during 1998-2000, the unsustainable, post-devaluation honeymoon.

• International arrivals fell sharply, by -18% in 2001, -7.3% in 2002, and a shocking and further -35% in 2003.
• Total visitor arrivals fell -8.2% in 2001, then -1.3% in 2002, then -11.6% in 2003
  
• Domestic visitor arrivals rose 2000-2003 (but generally spend less than international tourist). We stay home because the ringgit devaluation made us poorer internationally.

Where's the pearl? (Chart 6)

6. Penang's Hotel Occupancies Down

Penang hotel occupancy trends are down in the long term. The falls started before 911, and long before the SARS-hit 2003

• Overall Penang hotel occupancy rate (blue line) declined from 61.6% in 1996 to 49.8% in 2003 in a steady downtrend. Penang hotels are more than half empty in 2003
• City hotel occupancy (green line) started higher at 65% in 1996, dipped quickly to 52.4% in 1998, and remained generally flat to reach 51.9% in 2003. This line probably reflects business and domestic travelers.
• Beach hotels occupancy (pink line) went through roller coaster, but also sharply down. It went from 59.6% in 1996, seemed to enjoy some buoyancy from ringgit devaluation of 1998, reached 66.7% in 2000, and went all the way downhill to 46.7% in 2003. Between 2000 and 2003, it went from 2/3 occupied (already weak) to 46.7%, below the average.
  

Where's the pearl? (Chart 5)

5. Suffocated: Air Passengers Stagnated and Down

Penang's total air passenders in 2003 (2.43 million) was down to the lowest level since 1992 (orange lline). The upward trend in early 1990's has completely broken down. Long-term domestic arrival was flat: it declined from 1996 (green line), rebound since 2001, but remained lower than 1992, despite total economic growth. International passengers (blue line), despite a brief post-devaluation spike, by 2003 has slided to the low levels of 1991-1992.

Where's the Pearl? (Chart 4)

4. Penang Suffocated: Aircraft Arrivals Down Long-Term

There are 25% fewer airplanes arriving in Penang compared to early 1990's. Aircraft arrivals declined most sharply after 1996. A small rebound in in 2001 was followed by even lower levels by 2003.

Where's the pearl? (Chart 3)

3. Penang Choked: Car/Motorcycle Density Doubled Population Weight in Nation

In terms of vehicle density per person, Penang is 2.2 times the national average for motorcycles, 1.7x for private car, 0.8x for taxi (for a tourist, urban area).

When private cars and motorcycles are combined, Penang has twice the density of the nation (red column). That is, Penang has 0.92 private car or motorcycle per man, woman, senior citizen or baby, while Malaysia has 0.46 private car or motorcycle per person.

Where's The Pearl? (Chart 2)

2. Choked: Above-Average Car/Motorcycle per Capita, Below-Average Taxis

Penang has only 5.7% of Malaysia's population. But it has 12.6% of Malaysia's motorcycles, 9.7% of private cars, and 11.2% of private cars-plus-motorcycles (combining these two categories makes sense because car and motorcycle users are usually mutually exclusive). Yet it has only 4.4% of the taxis in Malaysia.

Where's The Pearl? (Chart 1)

Correction (2004 Sep 30) The basic data of this chart (#1) have been corrected by SERI since this article was written in May 2004. The June 2004 Quarterly Statistics by SERI now reports Penangites' GDP/capita relative to the nation to be 1990:1.19, 1995:1.35; 2000:1.39, 2001:1.35, 2002:1.36, 2003:1.36. Essentially, SERI data now show Penang income/person to be about 36% above national level for the past decade. (Instead of being 12% below national average.) See http://www.seri.com.my/publications.htm for SERI data. We do not know of any other major data changes and stand by the other 14 articles (including the other 12 charts, the introduction and conclusion articles). Please also read the rest of this article to see arguments on cannibalizing federal policies that sap Penang's vitality. We have left the rest of this article unchanged, warts and all, for you to see.

1. Penang GDP per Capita Now 12% Below National Average

This chart shows that Penang's GDP per capita used to be 40% above national level in 1995. By 2000, however, state GDP per head has fallen below national average. By 2002, Penang's ratio deteriorated to 88% of national average.

In other words, Penangites in 2002 were 12% poorer than national average. This is a long-term trend, and comes despite economic growth and more manufacturing jobs, because there were less growth per person in Penang and more elsewhere in Malaysia.

Penangites simply can't keep up through hardwork, its infamous frugality, and sacrifices for children's education. No honest work will do the trick, it seems. Perhaps frugality was not a choice, but a consequence forced by unfair federal policies upon a weak state leadership.

Where's The Pearl? (Intro)

Introduction: Penang's Problem Is Governance and Politics

The Pearl of Orient? But where's the pearl? If you think this question is unappreciative of Penang, wait till you see the facts. In a series of 13 charts on Penang, we will see general economic decline and a rather bleak outlook.

The first chart highlights Penang's relative poverty in Malaysia. Despite that poverty, Penang has double the national average for private vehicles, which explain why Penang's road and parking spaces are bursting at the seams.

Following a decade-long slump in tourism in Penang, hotels and airport will probably continue to be under-utilized even with a post-SARS rebound. Shrinking approved manufacturing projects, meanwhile, predict bleak outlooks for jobs and Penang's climb up the "value-added ladder".