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Conclusion: The Only Solution for Penang is Local Election
The previous 13 charts highlighted general stagnation, even a long-term decline inthe outlooks for Penang's income, private vehicle, air transport, tourism, and manufacturing investment. They show that:
No way out? There is no solution except political solution.

13. Penang One of the Worst States In Malaysia For Approved Projects
This chart shows not all states suffer the fate of falling approved manufacturing projects between 2000 and 2003. But Penang is one of the worst states in Malaysia.
Interestingly, states controlled by the Opposition parties or have a strong tradition of voter sympathy for the Opposition fared extremely well. Those with perenial governance scandals or were firmly under the ruling coalition's controls were the worst performers. Kelantan was working from a very low base, while Terengganu had a spike up in 2002, not captured in the 2000-2003 comparision.
Not all states see investment fall: Politics matters
Politics appears to matter, but not the way government propaganda would have it:

12. Fewer Potential Jobs For Penang, Less Capital Intensive Per Worker
Penang's approved manufacturing projects (1) will be creating fewer and fewer new employments (green bars) since 1999, and (2) will apply less investment per employment (purple line) since 1999. Remember projects approved in 2003 will probably impact the job markets in 2005-2006.
Potential job creation for projects approved in 2003 (9,890 jobs), in fact, will be near historical low of 1997 (9,736 potential jobs). Both years are at the lowest levels since data were available in 1987, when each year's approved projects were expected to create 10,000-25,000 potential jobs.

11. Penang Approved Projects Getting Smaller
The number of Penang's approved manufacturing projects (line chart) has risen from 1999 to 2003. But that is the wrong number to look at: Average project size (pink bars) is getting much smaller by the year in terms of investment value. The previous chart showed that total approved investment value has also fallen.

10. Penang's Sputtering Engine: Approved Manufacturing Projects In Decline
Penang's approved manufacturing project values have fallen sharply, from RM4.8 bil in 1999 to RM1.9 billion in 2003 (yellow bars). Since they are "approved" projects, some may not even be carried out, may not be fully implemented, or may be dragged out over a longer period of time than planned.
In other words, we haven't seen the full negative impact yet. If and when implemented, the approved projects of 2003 will only be ready to operate 2005 or later. The next charts will show potential job creation to decline to historical low from these projects.

9. Penang Stucked: Slow Shift To Tertiary Sector
Penang continues to rely heavily on manufacturing. It is failing to expand its low- and high-end services, such as tourism, logistics, research and development, software, and finance. Further shift to services is generally associated with more highly developed economies.

8. What Pearl? Relying On Less Lucrative
Domestic Tourists
This chart shows the long-term trend that Penang increasingly relies on domestic
tourists (green area). From 2000 to 2003 especially, the portion of foreign
and local tourists reversed from 62%-38% to 38%-62%.
Although domestic tourists are welcomed and bring revenues too,

7. What Pearl? International Tourists Down Sharply Before
SARS
International visitor arrivals to Penang were down in 1997, and were especially negative during 2000-2003. Penang's total visitor arrival growths were negative, except during 1998-2000, the unsustainable, post-devaluation honeymoon.

6. Penang's Hotel Occupancies Down
Penang hotel occupancy trends are down in the long term. The falls started before 911, and long before the SARS-hit 2003

5. Suffocated: Air Passengers Stagnated and Down
Penang's total air passenders in 2003 (2.43 million) was down to the lowest level since 1992 (orange lline). The upward trend in early 1990's has completely broken down. Long-term domestic arrival was flat: it declined from 1996 (green line), rebound since 2001, but remained lower than 1992, despite total economic growth. International passengers (blue line), despite a brief post-devaluation spike, by 2003 has slided to the low levels of 1991-1992.

4. Penang Suffocated: Aircraft Arrivals Down Long-Term
There are 25% fewer airplanes arriving in Penang compared to early 1990's.
Aircraft arrivals declined most sharply after 1996. A small
rebound in in 2001 was followed by even lower levels by 2003.

3. Penang Choked: Car/Motorcycle Density Doubled Population Weight in Nation
In terms of vehicle density per person, Penang is 2.2 times the national average for motorcycles, 1.7x for private car, 0.8x for taxi (for a tourist, urban area).
When private cars and motorcycles are combined, Penang has twice the density of the nation (red column). That is, Penang has 0.92 private car or motorcycle per man, woman, senior citizen or baby, while Malaysia has 0.46 private car or motorcycle per person.
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